Nick, take it from a physicist: If you consider earth and sun as a closed system, you do have (for all practical purposes) a hard limit on the energy that is available per unit of time. (Just kidding) If we only count successful colonies, we get St. Kitts in 1624! Emperors, and the whole Roman world, fought as hard as they could to keep the status quo ante , to keep things as they had always been. The ancient Egyptians were renowned for being super advanced not only in Mathematics and Architecture but in Medicine and Astronomy like only a few other civilizations on Earth. He does not say that this is the cause of the collapse of the Romans or many other civilizations. Typically if your family have not the basic surplus of resources to buy a bride or get you a marketable education the only option is to sell your labour as a soldier gambling on gaining a greater share of resources. Thanks for an interesting essay And the Northeast was populated by Huns and Goths and other unsavoury groups. ...read more, For more than a decade, a team led by researchers from the University of Arizona has been working at the archaeological site of Ceibal in northern Guatemala. The economic and cultural artifact assemblage mostly represented by pottery in London shows a distinct concentration in the early part of the city's life with a peak circa 120AD followed by a dramatic decline with a long tail extending in the late 4th cent. The transition would not have been traumatic and would have involved a lower loss of complexity: books, skills, works of art and much more could have been saved and passed to future generations. Guerrilla war struggle is the new entertainment!!! And from there: 210 Reasons for the decline of the Roman Empire. Sociologists? casual and mass disposal... casual disposal represents small quantities of potery scatter left kicking around and mass disposal represents the deliberate disposal of waste material.. the idea being casual disposal should still mirror mass disposal of the period. 3 Factors for Creating a Culture of Innovation & Creativity Great article! I give you the permanent Hispanola colony in 1493, and claim... Ireland, drawing on precedents dating back to the Norman invasion in 1171. The American political scientist Samuel P. Huntington argued that future wars would be fought not between countries, but between cultures. So that's 1492 to 1898, 406 years for Spain. We do everything we can to keep things as they are. All what has survived from those times had to be slowly hand copied by a Medieval monk, and a lot has been lost. You could say, actually, that an abrupt collapse is more in agreement with the model than a gradual one. The gold accumulated in centuries of conquests is fast disappearing and you can't pay enough legionnaires to defend the borders. You know the story of Spartacus, the leader of a slave revolt in Roman times. Also, from the viewpoint of a human being, even a reversible collapse that involves society as a whole tends to last much longer than a human lifetime. Before then, the "Golden Age" of man--what civilizations aspired to, were always those of the past, and history was considered a process of degeneration. At the top of Maya society were the kings, or “kuhul ajaw” (holy lords), who claimed to be related to gods and followed a hereditary succession. I could go on but I'm starting to Rant..and I'm off to watch the tour de france on tv..there is a lot more to this but the failing has been the constant generalizing from specific example school of thought and is in part a systemic failing of how archaeology is managed... Basically the Roman city got big and remained big. Worse, he takes a model from someplace else and claims - but not proves - that it is applicable. Excellent farms hard up against the largest desert on the planet. Now the shadow banking system is gone, and while the 0% bound remains intact, there's nowhere left to go. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Haplogroup_E1b1b1a_(Y-DNA)#Roman_soldiers_in_Britain. Just because there is system dynamics model about limits to growth and there was a Roman empire which frist grew and then declined does not prove that the variables in the generic world model are sufficient to explain the fall of Rome. Queen Elizabeth II, in total, is the head of state of 32 various states and territories, and is the legal owner of about 6,600 million acres of land, one sixth of the earth’s non ocean surface. But, I am sure, a good number of them had some idea that they were fighting for (or against) the abstract concept that was the Roman Empire. Remains have also indicated that a very sophisticated and advanced urban culture existed … The US is clearly the country most relevant to this discussion: it has the largest new wind-build, it's the largest consumer of oil, etc. Qualitatively the comparison appears to be good, so I think the model supports a certain interpretation of the archaeological data, and also the archaeological data support the model. The Mayans were a very advanced civilization who survived for many, many years. : as a boundary condition. (just like for us it is not just a question of "not enough oil, let's drill for more"). That, however, is simply a sampling bias, and the dinosaurs had no chance to alter the distribution of their own bones! So looking at land grants: once made what other options do you have given the case I made in my previous post that withdrawal is not actually an option after the first generation. "Well, Druid, I see your point but it won't be easy....." And, if I were a freelance writer or like that life would be much more difficult; for sure. Those trees are planted. The Imperial taxes are too heavy! US model of land use (suburbia) needs a lot of energy. But our leaders are no better apt at understanding complex system than the military commanders who ruled the Roman Empire. It is like that for me. They were famously advanced in the fields of agriculture, architecture and ...read more, The ancient Maya, a diverse group of indigenous people who lived in parts of present-day Mexico, Belize, Guatemala, El Salvador and Honduras, had one of the most sophisticated and complex civilizations in the Western Hemisphere. Others thrive for thousands of years. Tainter viewed this as a collapse process. So let me ask my question again: Is there no interdisciplinarity at all? But do we really have to lock ourselves up there forever? These lists would make excellent T Shirts! Low lake levels suggest warm, arid conditions in Italy, the Swiss Alps and France, with the low levels occurring from 1150 to 850 BCE. Perhaps the most important feedback loop is the one between capital and natural resources. In practice, they spent most of their time trying to reinforce the army by having as many legions as they could. That seems a lot...). A world with less crude oil, or with no crude oil at all, cannot be the same world we are used to, but it doesn't need to be the Middle Ages again. the problem is we are not aware or even looking for what it is that is missing from the data set. Too bad! The Maya were deeply religious, and worshiped various gods related to nature, including the gods of the sun, the moon, rain and corn. "what is the evidence if any for late 2nd cent decline?". I don't think you need to be fluent in French to get the meaning. however Marsden and West did a study of residual roman pottery in medieval pits. Women and Minoan Culture 4. All Rights Reserved. (http://www.whoownstheworld.com/about-the-book/largest-landowner/)(is this source reputable? some of these mechanisims can only be seen in very large sample sets. Canvassing opinion from peers returned estimates unanimously of less than a year. So, our Druid had seen the future and was describing it to Emperor Aurelius. Roughly 40 percent of Guatemalans are of Mayan descent. Sure. This is not a collapse: this is adaptation to changed circumstances. It was such a disaster that it led to the legend that Emperor Augustus would wander at night in his palace screaming "Varus, give me back my legions!". You are not making your claim in good faith, when you give the Spanish a start date of discovery but define the British empire as beginning long after they controlled land on 3.2 Continents (India is a 0.2!). Now, let me try to explain how this scheme could work. Such is human nature. "Yes, it means defense that you can afford. Then, during and after the third century, we have famines and plagues. The tribes at Varus time could lure the Roman army into an ambush but they could not build own Reichs. "And...?" You can play a game with the scheme in Myrtveit's figure and you can relate it to what Tainter said about human societies. Therefore the amount of available land for PV and wind is mostly theoretical and I don't think it will ensure the role of the USA as the ruling elite of the world for very much longer. Reminds me why I shunned a career at the university. Europeans:-Separated secular … Russia will do well. This is clearly evident in most civilizations, and the civilizations that it is not clearly … The Roman Emperor was a military commander and the way to be Emperor was to please the legions that the Emperor commanded. Polydeukes, I don't think I am especially pessimistic. This would have given West Rome a sufficient tax base back and as the Huns were defeated in 451 probably some hundred years more of existence. So, let me show a plot that summarizes several industrial and agricultural indicators, together with a graph that shows how the extension of the Empire varied in time. The models due to their power cause enough anxiety on their own - read Forrester's recent interview in the Sloan Journal. But filters need energy and natural resources to be built and that will place some further strain on natural resources. In the US today, 3% of the population (and vast amounts of fossil fuels) provides the surplus to support the 97% of the population not directly involved in energy production. The curious fact about him is that he was both a stoic philosopher and the Emperor! of life, is experienced religiously-and the way to life, procreation, as the holy way. what we did was divide the roman assemblage on a few test sites into two components. It is positive feedback loops that most often lead to "negative" effects. It actually collapsed very frequently, in cycles of around 300 years. this fact is the biggest piece of evidence we have it was relatively quick. Marcus Aurelius Verus - "Meditations" ca. The rise and fall of the central organization didn't affect the culture, unlike the Roman culture that was completely wiped out by Christianity. Not at all. The Empire had to return its economy within these limits. He describes how many agricultural societies go through cycles lasting about 200-300 years. Read the story of the life of St. Patrick to have some idea of what the early Church was like. We had a look for a possible destination of this missing strat and the first port of call we thought of (as did many other observers) is the Roman waterfronts which require large backfilling deposits. But this silver didn't help them much, since they lost the war and were wiped out by the Romans. All ancient civilizations depended almost completely on agriculture for their energy needs, and their EROEI was based mostly on fertility which determined how many people a single farmer could feed. Others because their commander or their chieftain told them so. They didn't, so in that sense, it DIDN'T COLLAPSE. And it lost large parts of its tax base after the invasions of 406. The issue of slack needs some thought. If the correct homeostatic reaction to negative external drivers like energy costs is to contract, then what is required to accomodate this process gracefully an appropriate rate of negative interest on the medium of exchange, such that a reasonable level of employment and social stability is maintained. Which Mesoamerica civilization flourished in the steamy jungles of present day southern Mexico, Belize and Guatemala. An oppressive dictatorship that included a suffocating bureaucracy, heavy taxes for the citizens, and a heavy military apparatus. The fourth point Huntington (1993, p. 26/27) makes is the dual role of the West, which is at the moment at the peak of its power but at the same time the period is characterized by a return to the roots in Non-Western civilizations. At the time of the wars with Carthage, it was the Carthaginians who held Spain and, I imagine, the silver mines. The Maya excelled at agriculture, pottery, hieroglyph writing, calendar-making and mathematics, and left behind an astonishing amount of impressive architecture and symbolic artwork. What, they had unruly worker collectives back then? and became the most powerful and influential city in the region by 400 ...read more, Tikal is a complex of Mayan ruins deep in the rainforests of northern Guatemala. Congratulations, this has been fun. the Phoenicians were in Wales 1500bce. These two things are related, plagues are often the result of poor nutrition. Last class, we examined the rise of civilizations in the Old World. Though the Maya practiced a primitive type of “slash-and-burn” agriculture, they also displayed evidence of more advanced farming methods, such as irrigation and terracing. The survey, conducted with the help of lasers, challenges long-held assumptions that this area was poorly connected and sparsely populated. This includes Muslim contributions, particularly those made during the Golden Age of Islam in medieval times, which have often failed to be fully recognized and acknowledged. So, they had to remain in Europe and to come to terms with the limits of the area they occupied. The early waterfronts have little pottery in them compared to the later. Some civilizations reach their peak of power, then collapse and remain in decline or even disappear. Tainter credits the invention of the steam engine, which was invented out of necessity to drain flooded mines, as being the fundamental invention that saved British civilization from collapse. Negative feedback, you see? After assembling a record-setting 154 radiocarbon dates, the researchers have been able to develop a highly precise ...read more, How can archaeologists unravel the many secrets of Mayan pyramids like Kukulkan, the towering centerpiece of Mexico’s famed Chichen Itza? Perhaps someone has examined this in depth - which would be apropos. Yes, I have lived in Japan for 6 months, back in the 1980s, and they had stopped doing the humanure trade long before. We may already be there, actually. A question: Why was not Northern Europe, UK cleared and farmed allowing continued agricultural expansion? What then needs to be instituted is a workable system of the economics of loss, which if properly done will allow free markets (really the only way we know) to ensure that capitalism can continue as people compete to lose the least money. If you create too many soldiers then there are not enough peasants working in the fields to feed them, so they are weak in battle. 4) The other excellent point is about how Tainter and the peakists are not mutually exclusive. The civilization flourished in the deep, hot jungles of present-day Guatemala, Mexico and Belize and the peak of the culture of the ancient Mayans – known as the Ancient Maya Classic – took place between 300 and 900 A.D. before mysteriously declining. However, I'm wondering about the concept of complexity here. We are subjected to the "fish in the water" curse. We know that the Roman Empire was based mainly on two kinds of resources: military and agricultural. These will be seen as: a failure of the health care systems, political manipulation of food distribution, wars over ideological differences and social preferences, and the necessary sacrifice of nature for the economic needs of humanity. So, I think the explanation is that the Romans lacked the economic resources to develop new lands because they had concentrated all they had into the military. Fridley continues: Two millennia after the battle of Teutoburg, we can see how useless it was that confrontation in the woods soaked with rain. But only within limits. You mention the example of land grants to time served soldiers, land grants can only happen once. It was the new oil fields in the north sea and an Alaska that for a short time created a world "drowning in oil". Soon it may be deserts for CSP plants or areas of water where you can grow algae. The data left by the Romans was modified by themselves.. any civilisation will modify its physical remains with in the time period of its on existence. Basically, yes, the reason for the 300-year cycles is almost entirely Malthusian. But it was the land of the Bards who developed a very complex and structured form of poetry. Complex systems have a balance of both self-reinforcing and self-dampening loops that tend to cancel each other out. It doesn’t appear in the record yet we know when a waterfront is built one suddenly appears! In addition, the Empire bled itself even more by building an extensive system of fortifications - the limes that had to be maintained and manned, besides being expensive in themselves. The city, which was designated a UNESCO World Heritage Site in 1987, was settled as early as 400 B.C. Couldn't one argue that the transition from Roman times to Middle Ages also, in a sense and eventually, also increased complexity? © 2021 A&E Television Networks, LLC. very frustrating. But they didn't have the right technology to cross the oceans and, at the time of Marcus Aurelius, they had run out of the resources to develop it. I thought I described it simply enough in my original comment: Positive feedback has negative consequences. Not quite a druid here, but I'll take a stab at your question: People inclined to question the current paradigm are unlikely to find themselves in positions where they will be heard by the leaders, let alone paid to provide advice to them, regardless of their training. Agreed: it is a point that Kunstler has made, and that I make, too, in my essay on the Roman Empire. But, if Academia as a formal structure is so innovation-averse, that doesn't mean that individuals in it can't be innovative. This work is licensed under a Collapse is not irreversible. According to Infohio, Rome began when small tribes settled on hills later known as the Seven Hills of Rome. We have a lot of texts by Roman historians - none of them seemed to understand exactly what was going on. A system of writing using glyptic symbols was developed and was inscribed on buildings, stele, artifacts and books (also called codices). And, as we said before, peak civilization also corresponds to "peak complexity", in the sense that … I apologize in advance for my poor use and poverty of language. Lake sediments in the Swiss Plateau and timberline fluctuations in the … [1] The Maya civilization shares many features with other Mesoamerican civilizations due to the high degree of interaction and cultural diffusion that characterized the region. If the Romans could have found a way to use their resources, agriculture for instance, in ways that didn't destroy them, erosion in this case, their society could have lasted for a longer time. Marc Aurelius headed an unified Roman empire. During the good times, the legions would bring back from foreign conquests more gold than what was spent but, with time, the balance had become negative. Could it be the early pre 160AD Roman pottery assemblage only survived in the record because the opportunity to dispose of it was presented by the existence of open areas peppered with large quarry pits that required backfilling? Even less if they paint a picture of the future like J. H. Kunstler in "World Made By Hand" where women are basically only there to cater to the needs of the male heroes. Note that the model doesn't have a "complexity" parameter built in. Surely there are differences: our society is more of a mining society and less of a military based society. What brought down the Romans, and eventually will bring us down, is the overexploitation of the resources. One of the world's oldest civilizations was born in India, a highly developed culture that had a profound influence on the subsequent development of the country, and reflected in a lifestyle of many inhabitants of the East. - secondly, large scale war is no longer a good employer of men. Actually, the true giant of dynamic thinking is - I believe - Charles Darwin. The fall of petroleum civilization: peak oil will take place primarily in the U.S. as it is most dependent on limited resources. So you walk to Rome - kind of a long walk from Eburacum, in Britannia; a place that today we call "York". Homeostasis is like orbiting around an equilibrium point, without ever reaching it. The earliest Maya settlements date to around 1800 B.C., or the beginning of what is called the Preclassic or Formative Period. Evidently, something is wrong here <..> I have labelled this phase of speculation as the "dilettante" approach", meaning that it was beset by dabblers, by people who thought about the topic for a while, published their pet idea, then moved to another subject.
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